Design Evidences for Life Support

by Hugh Ross, © 2000, Reasons To Believe

Probability Estimate for
Attaining the Necessary Parameters for a
Life Support Planet

Related Articles:

PARAM. NUM.

PARAMETER

PROBABILITY OF GALAXY, STAR, PLANET, PARAMETER OR MOON FALLING IN REQUIRED RANGE BY CHANCE (WITHOUT DIVINE DESIGN)
1 local abundance and distribution of dark matter 0.1
2 galaxy size 0.1
3 galaxy type 0.1
4 galaxy location 0.1
5 local dwarf galaxy absorption rate 0.1
6 star distance relative to galactic center 0.1
7 star distance from corotation circle of galaxy 0.005
8 star distance from closest spiral arm 0.1
9 z-axis extremes of star’s orbit 0.1
10 proximity of solar nebula to a supernova eruption 0.01
11 timing of solar nebula formation relative to supernova eruption 0.01
12 number of stars in system 0.7
13 distance/mass of nearby stars 0.1
14 star birth date 0.2
15 star age 0.4
16 star metallicity 0.02
17 star orbital eccentricity 0.1
18 star’s distance from galactic plane 0.1
19 star mass 0.001
20 star luminosity change relative to speciation types & rates 0.00001
21 star color 0.4
22 star’s carbon to oxygen ratio 0.01
23 star’s space velocity relative to Local Standard of Rest 0.05
24 star’s short term variability 0.05
25 star’s long term variability 0.05
26 H3+ production 0.1
27 supernovae rates & locations 0.01
28 white dwarf binary types, rates, & locations 0.01
29 location, timing, and rate of stellar encounters 0.01
30 planetary distance from star 0.001
31 inclination of planetary orbit 0.5
32 axis tilt of planet 0.3
33 rate of change of axial tilt 0.01
34 period and size of axis tilt variation 0.1
35 planetary rotation period 0.1
36 rate of change in planetary rotation period 0.05
37 planetary orbit eccentricity 0.2
38 rate of change of planetary orbital eccentricity 0.1
39 rate of change of planetary inclination 0.5
40 period and size of eccentricity variation 0.1
41 period and size of inclination variation 0.1
42 number of moons 0.2
43 mass and distance of moon 0.01
44 surface gravity (escape velocity) 0.001
45 tidal force 0.1
46 magnetic field 0.01
47 rate of change & character of change in magnetic field 0.1
48 albedo 0.1
49 density 0.1
50 thickness of crust 0.01
51 oceans-to-continents ratio 0.2
52 rate of change in oceans to continents ratio 0.1
53 global distribution of continents 0.2
54 frequency, timing, & extent of ice ages 0.1
55 frequency, timing, & extent of global snowball events 0.1
56 asteroidal & cometary collision rate 0.1
57 change in asteroidal & cometary collision rates 0.1
58 rate of change in ast. & comet collision rate 0.1
59 mass of body colliding with primordial earth 0.002
60 timing of body colliding with primordial earth 0.05
61 location of body’s collision on primordial earth 0.1
62 position & mass of Jupiter relative to Earth 0.01
63 major planet eccentricities 0.1
64 major planet orbital instabilities 0.1
65 drift and rate of drift in major planet distances 0.05
66 number & distribution of planets 0.01
67 atmospheric transparency 0.01
68 atmospheric pressure 0.01
69 atmospheric viscosity 0.1
70 atmospheric electric discharge rate 0.1
71 atmospheric temperature gradient 0.01
72 carbon dioxide level in atmosphere 0.01
73 rate of change in carbon dioxide level in atmosphere 0.1
74 rate of change in water vapor level in atmossphere 0.01
75 rate of change in methane level in early atmosphere 0.01
76 oxygen quantity in atmosphere 0.01
77 chlorine quantity in atmosphere 0.1
78 cobalt quantity in crust 0.1
79 arsenic quantity in crust 0.1
80 copper quantity in crust 0.1
81 boron quantity in crust 0.1
82 flourine quantity in crust 0.1
83 iodine quantity in crust 0.1
84 manganese quantity in crust 0.1
85 nickel quantity in crust 0.1
86 phosphorus quantity in crust 0.1
87 potassium quantity in crust 0.1
88 tin quantity in crust 0.1
89 zinc quantity in crust 0.1
90 molybdenum quantity in crust 0.05
91 vanadium quantity in crust 0.1
92 chromium quantity in crust 0.1
93 selenium quantity in crust 0.1
94 iron quantity in oceans 0.1
95 tropospheric ozone quantity 0.01
96 stratospheric ozone quantity 0.01
97 mesospheric ozone quantity 0.01
98 water vapor level in atmosphere 0.01
99 oxygen to nitrogen ratio in atmosphere 0.1
100 quantity of greenhouse gases in atmosphere 0.01
101 rate of change of greenhouse gases in atmosphere 0.01
102 quantity of forest & grass fires 0.01
103 quantity of sea salt aerosols 0.1
104 soil mineralization 0.1
105 quantity of decomposer bacteria in soil 0.01
106 quantity of mycorrhizal fungi in soil 0.01
107 quantity of nitrifying microbes in soil 0.01
108 quantity & timing of vascular plant introductions 0.01
109 quantity, timing, & placement of carbonate-producing animals 0.00001
110 quantity, timing, & placement of methanogens 0.00001
111 quantity of soil sulfur 0.1
112 quantity of sulfur in the life planet’s core 0.1
113 quantity of silicon in the life planet’s core 0.1
114 quantity of water at subduction zones 0.01
115 hydration rate of subducted minerals 0.1
116 tectonic activity 0.1
117 rate of decline in tectonic activity 0.1
118 volcanic activity 0.1
119 rate of decline in volcanic activity 0.1
120 viscosity at Earth core boundaries 0.01
121 viscosity of lithosphere 0.2
122 biomass to comet infall ratio 0.01
123 regularity of cometary infall 0.1

Dependency Factors Estimate: 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00

Longevity Requirements Estimate: 0.0000001

Probability for occurrence of all 123 parameters: approx. 10 -161

Maximum possible number of planets in universe: approx. 10 22

Thus, less than 1 chance in 10 139 ( ten thousand trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion) exists that even one such planet would occur anywhere in the universe.

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